METHODOLOGY
How we classify the AI compute stack
580 markets. Four dimensions, each scored 0–5 from cited evidence. One deterministic rule. 9 chokepoints.
The thresholds are published below. The rule is code — no judgment call sits between a node's scores and its label.
The four dimensions
Every market is scored 0–5 on each dimension. A score with no citable source is floored at 1 — never the benefit of the doubt.
| Dimension | The question | Scores 5 | Scores 3 | Scores 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C · Concentration | Who controls supply? | One firm holds ≥80% of the flow (HHI ≥ 5,000) | Top three firms hold 50–80% | Fragmented — top three under 25% |
| M · Moat | How long until a qualified alternative supplier exists? | Decade-class know-how or ecosystem lock-in; qualification takes 24+ months | Real capital or IP barrier; 6–24 months | Commodity process; switching takes under 3 months |
| D · Downstream cone | If supply halved for a year, what breaks? | The whole stack strains | One major layer is impaired | Niche — local impact only |
| R · Route-around | What does substitution cost? | No route inside 5 years at any capex | 2–3 years plus heavy requalification | Drop-in alternatives exist today |
The rule: chokepoint, bottleneck, commoditised
Labels fall out of the scores mechanically. First rule that matches, wins.
Rule: C ≥ 4 and M ≥ 3 and D ≥ 3 and R ≥ 4. Meaning: concentrated, defended, load-bearing, and non-routable — all four at once. Whoever holds one can durably tax the stack.
Rule: D ≥ 3 and R ≥ 3, but fails the chokepoint bar. Meaning: the stack strains here, but control is too diffuse or too weakly defended for anyone to durably tax the flow.
Rule: C ≤ 2 and M ≤ 2. Meaning: fragmented and undefended. Price does the talking.
The remaining 122 markets sit between the bars — tracked and re-scored, not labelled.
What survives the test
580 markets scored
How a score is set
- 1
Evidence first. Every dimension score carries at least one dated, cited source. No source, no score above 1.
- 2
Three draws, median stands. Each dimension is scored three times independently; the median is the score. No single pass sets a label.
- 3
Adversarial challenge. A separate pass attacks every score — it can hold a score or cut it, never raise it.
- 4
The rule, applied. The label is computed from the thresholds above. Nothing is hand-tuned at the label step.
Every node scored on concentration, moat, downstream reach and routability, then adversarially re-verified. Rescored 15 Jul 2026 · 990 dimensions challenged.
What we publish, what stays on the desk
Published
- the label and the thresholds behind it
- a one-line why for every chokepoint and bottleneck
- the top suppliers at each market
On the desk
- the dimension scores themselves
- supplier share estimates
- direction of travel
- the full tracked roster
Full scorecard, owner shares, supply edges and the full tracked roster are in the desk letter.
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