CHOKEPOINTS
The 9 chokepoints of the AI compute stack
580 nodes in the stack were scored on the same four-part test — concentrated, defended, non-routable, load-bearing (see how on the methodology page). Only 9 cleared all four. No top-ten cut, no curation: this is the entire surviving set, the same form the atlas uses to grade every other node.
Every node scored on concentration, moat, downstream reach and routability, then adversarially re-verified. Rescored 15 Jul 2026 · 990 dimensions challenged.
ASML holds roughly eight in ten immersion scanner slots, and Nikon is the only other supplier with a qualified ArF 193i tool.
ASML ships every EUV scanner, and the >600 precision mirrors inside have no alternative optics source for sub-7 nm patterning.
Three firms control HBM stacking through proprietary TSV and bonding, and CoWoS integration requirements lock out new entrants for years.
SK hynix dominates HBM3E supply and CoWoS packaging scarcity constrains total output.
Sibelco and one other firm mine a unique Spruce Pine vein that feeds nearly all semiconductor-grade crucibles, and no comparable deposit is in production.
ASML's grip on advanced lithography means the resolution ceiling and wafer throughput at leading nodes depend on systems from a single supplier.
Hoya shares a duopoly on defect-prone coated mask substrates, where a single blank flaw replicates across every chip printed, deterring new entry.
IMS Nanofabrication alone ships production EUV multi-beam mask writers, and no second source matches the nanometer-precision throughput required.
China controls nearly all global rare earth separation capacity and can restrict exports to dictate magnet costs worldwide.
Full scorecard, owner shares, supply edges and the full tracked roster are in the desk letter.
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