Cobalt

Why the concentration exists

Cobalt is a metallic element extracted primarily as a byproduct of copper mining from sediment-hosted deposits. The ore is processed into hydroxide at mine sites before being refined into battery-grade sulphate or metal for use in lithium-ion battery cathodes. Supply concentrates geographically because the deposits that yield cobalt are themselves rare and unevenly distributed across the earth's crust. The metal's status as a byproduct means producers cannot easily increase cobalt output without also expanding copper operations.[10][12][14][2]

The Democratic Republic of the Congo holds approximately 70 to 72 percent of global cobalt reserves, which anchors production in that country. Industrial-scale operations account for 70 to 85 percent of cobalt output in the DRC, with artisanal miners supplying the remaining 15 to 30 percent. This geological endowment means that any disruption to Congolese operations immediately affects global availability. The country has been the top producer since 2003 and is likely to remain a crucial supplier for the foreseeable future.[13][19][16][1]

China controls approximately 70 percent of global cobalt refining capacity, converting Congolese hydroxide into battery-grade chemicals. This concentration at the processing stage means Chinese firms capture the margin between African mine output and the refined product demanded by battery manufacturers. The refining bottleneck persists even when mined supply is abundant. Targray and other suppliers provide battery-grade cobalt sulphate crystals with specific nickel content and pH specifications for cell production.[14][15]

What the evidence shows

Who supplies it

Indonesia has emerged as a growing secondary source of cobalt, derived from nickel laterite operations using high-pressure acid leach technology. Indonesian cobalt production is expected to rise from 5.3 percent of global output in 2022 to 20.8 percent by 2030. New projects at Pomalaa and Morowali are driving this expansion. The country's cobalt output rose 37.7 percent to approximately 46 kilotonnes in 2025.[14][17][18][11]

Where it sits in the stack

What would break it

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has demonstrated its ability to restrict global cobalt supply through export controls. The country extended an export ban through September 2025, causing spot prices of cobalt hydroxide to more than double. A new quota system will limit cobalt exports to 87,000 tonnes in both 2026 and 2027. CMOC is expected to be able to export only 31,200 tons of cobalt material in 2026 under the new quota system.[5][9][6]

Price volatility has historically triggered supply responses that take years to materialize. Cobalt prices plummeted 70 percent to $13 per pound by March 2019, forcing higher-cost producers to exit the market. Companies that curtailed production during price troughs now face delays in reactivating idle capacity. MB cobalt metal averaged $16.08 per pound in 2025, up 42.81 percent year-on-year.[8][11]

The United States lacks domestic primary cobalt production as of December 2025. Fortune Minerals is developing the NICO project in Canada's Northwest Territories with $6.38 million in funding from the US Department of Defense. The project aims to produce battery-grade cobalt sulphate heptahydrate for the battery and high-strength alloy supply chain. The company successfully concluded validation tests for an optimized hydrometallurgical flowsheet.[8][7]

What to watch

CMOC expects average annual production capacity at its Kisanfu mine to reach 82,000 tonnes over the two years ending December 2026. The company aims to achieve annual output between 90,000 and 100,000 tonnes of cobalt metal by 2028. CMOC has set guidance of 100,000 to 120,000 tonnes of cobalt production for 2026. The company produced 117,549 tonnes in 2025, all from its DRC operations.[3][4][6]

The DRC's export quota restrictions will cap cobalt shipments at 87,000 tonnes annually through 2027. Fastmarkets analysts forecast a supply deficit of 10,700 tonnes against demand of 292,300 tonnes in 2026. This shortfall could emerge even as global mined supply grows. China exported 5,147 tonnes of cobalt metal to the Netherlands in 2024, a 153 percent increase year-on-year.[9]

Indonesian cobalt production is expected to reach 59.8 kilotonnes in 2026, representing a 21.2 percent increase over the previous year. Global cobalt mine output in the DRC is projected to grow 4.4 percent to 247.7 kilotonnes in 2026. These expansions may not fully offset the constraints imposed by Congolese export quotas. Global processed and mined cobalt production was forecast at 265,000 tonnes for 2024.[18][3]

Related nodes

Sources

1. investingnews.com · 2026-07-02T19:25:39
2. iea.org · 2023
3. fastmarkets.com · October 29, 2024
4. fastmarkets.com · July 18, 2024
5. mining.com · 2025-07-14
6. mining.com · January 16, 2026
7. mining.com · 2026-01-21
8. csis.org · March 2019
9. fastmarkets.com · 2024
10. en.cmoc.com · 2025
11. en.cmoc.com
12. faircobaltalliance.org
13. miningdigital.com
14. benchmarkminerals.com
15. targray.com
16. lobitocorridor.com
17. mine.nridigital.com · April 2024
18. mining-technology.com · January 13, 2026
19. mining-technology.com · November 14, 2025