L0 · CHOKEPOINT
Raw Materials & Extraction
Every chip, cable and magnet in this atlas begins as a rock or a chemical pulled from the ground somewhere. This layer covers the mining, refining and processing of the physical inputs the whole chain depends on: rare earths for magnets, silicon and specialty gases for fabs, copper for wiring, and the high-purity quartz that is essentially a single-source dependency for semiconductor production. The chokepoints are not in the mines but in the refining plants, most of which sit in China.
WHY IT'S A CHOKEPOINT
Refining is the chokepoint, not mining. Rare-earth separation, sintered magnets, gallium, germanium and graphite are all heavily China-concentrated and now under active export controls. High-purity quartz is a near single-source dependency for the entire semiconductor chain.
Signals
- China controls ~98% of primary gallium and ~90% of global rare-earth refining (IEA 2025).
- China's gallium export curbs drove European spot prices up ~365% by mid-2025; exports ran near zero for months (Swedish National China Centre 2025).
- Germanium sold near ~$6,150/kg in US warehouses in early 2026, roughly 2.3x China's ~$2,674/kg domestic price, after export curbs (industry price data).
- Two firms, Sibelco and The Quartz Corp, both in Spruce Pine NC, make most semiconductor-grade high-purity quartz (CRU 2025).
The investment angle
Listed exposure runs through ex-China rare-earth separators like MP Materials and Lynas, plus the quartz and polysilicon names that gain pricing power as export controls tighten. The chokepoint is refining, not mining.
Inside this layer, node by node
The atlas data behind this layer: 55 nodes, 26 of them chokepoints. Every node links back into the network map; market figures carry their source.
Mining through semi-fabrication of copper, aluminium, steel, and specialty electrical steel that form AI infrastructure's physical backbone. Electrical conductivity and magnetic properties determine suitability for power distribution and transformer cores. Value concentrates in smelting, refining, and specialty grades like GOES.
Quartzite mining through metallurgical-grade silicon to polysilicon purification; the upstream chain for semiconductor wafers and solar cells. Purity requirements escalate dramatically from rock to electronic-grade material. HPQ mining and polysilicon oligopoly capture margin; MG-Si remains energy-intensive commodity.
Rare-earth ore mining through separation, alloy production, and permanent magnet manufacturing, plus recycling. Neodymium-iron-boron magnets enable high-efficiency motors and generators in power infrastructure. China controls separation and magnet manufacturing, capturing most value through export policy that sets international prices.
Raw materials for lithium-ion batteries are extracted and refined to chemical precursors: lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, plus electrolyte and separator inputs. This node covers only mined and chemically converted inputs; battery cells and finished grid storage sit upstream in L1. China dominates chemical refining and precursor production, capturing most downstream value before cell assembly.
Uranium is explored, mined, and milled to yellowcake; conversion, enrichment, and fuel fabrication sit in L1 under nuclear power generation. Mine operators and a handful of national champions (Cameco, Kazatomprom, Orano, CGN, Uranium One) control most primary supply. Concentration is high but geographically distributed across Canada, Kazakhstan, and allied Western suppliers.
Regasification of natural gas and LNG as raw material for AI compute power generation. Gas turbines and CCGTs sit at L1; this node covers feedstock only. LNG liquefaction train operators capture most margin, with US Gulf Coast, Qatar, and Australia controlling most new capacity.
Production and distribution of bulk industrial gases (O2, N2, Ar, H2, CO2) and specialty/electronic-grade gases (Ne, Kr, Xe, NF3, HF, dopants, CVD precursors) for metals processing, polysilicon, and semiconductor fabrication. Specialty and electronic-grade gases carry highest margin; bulk industrial gases are lower-margin but high-volume.
Sulphuric acid, caustic soda, soda ash, lime, mineral reagents, lubricants, and fuels consumed across all extraction and refining operations. These process chemicals enable leaching, precipitation, pH control, and energy supply without entering final products. Smelter by-product acid is lowest-cost; specialty mining reagents capture modest premiums over commodity grades.
Services and infrastructure for extraction: equipment maintenance, recycling, trading, logistics, water, permitting and standards. These reduce downtime, enable material circularity and manage regulatory compliance. OEM aftermarket and large trading houses consolidate value despite fragmentation.
Companies we track
Supply chain
Raw inputs
Key suppliers
Buyers