chokepoints.ai
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10 layers580 nodes2,376 dependencies95 chokepoints6,500+ companiesnode size = companies identified
← THE STACK

L0 · CHOKEPOINT

Raw Materials & Extraction

Every chip, cable and magnet in this atlas begins as a rock or a chemical pulled from the ground somewhere. This layer covers the mining, refining and processing of the physical inputs the whole chain depends on: rare earths for magnets, silicon and specialty gases for fabs, copper for wiring, and the high-purity quartz that is essentially a single-source dependency for semiconductor production. The chokepoints are not in the mines but in the refining plants, most of which sit in China.

L0INPUTSL0BUYERSRAW MATERIALS & EXTRACTIONSUPPLY SCHEMATIC · L0

WHY IT'S A CHOKEPOINT

Refining is the chokepoint, not mining. Rare-earth separation, sintered magnets, gallium, germanium and graphite are all heavily China-concentrated and now under active export controls. High-purity quartz is a near single-source dependency for the entire semiconductor chain.

Signals

  • China controls ~98% of primary gallium and ~90% of global rare-earth refining (IEA 2025).
  • China's gallium export curbs drove European spot prices up ~365% by mid-2025; exports ran near zero for months (Swedish National China Centre 2025).
  • Germanium sold near ~$6,150/kg in US warehouses in early 2026, roughly 2.3x China's ~$2,674/kg domestic price, after export curbs (industry price data).
  • Two firms, Sibelco and The Quartz Corp, both in Spruce Pine NC, make most semiconductor-grade high-purity quartz (CRU 2025).

The investment angle

Listed exposure runs through ex-China rare-earth separators like MP Materials and Lynas, plus the quartz and polysilicon names that gain pricing power as export controls tighten. The chokepoint is refining, not mining.

Dominant playerChina (refining & separation)
ConcentrationChina ~60–90% of rare-earth refining
Key metricHigh-purity quartz is a near single-source dependency
GeographyChina / Australia / United States

Inside this layer, node by node

The atlas data behind this layer: 55 nodes, 26 of them chokepoints. Every node links back into the network map; market figures carry their source.

Industrial metalsL0.1chokepointfragmentedlegacy26 companies

Mining through semi-fabrication of copper, aluminium, steel, and specialty electrical steel that form AI infrastructure's physical backbone. Electrical conductivity and magnetic properties determine suitability for power distribution and transformer cores. Value concentrates in smelting, refining, and specialty grades like GOES.

$309B market · 20243.5% CAGRsource ↗
Rare earths and permanent-magnet supply chainL0.3chokepointnear-monopolyscaling21 companies

Rare-earth ore mining through separation, alloy production, and permanent magnet manufacturing, plus recycling. Neodymium-iron-boron magnets enable high-efficiency motors and generators in power infrastructure. China controls separation and magnet manufacturing, capturing most value through export policy that sets international prices.

Specialty and industrial gasesL0.7chokepointoligopolyscaling42 companies

Production and distribution of bulk industrial gases (O2, N2, Ar, H2, CO2) and specialty/electronic-grade gases (Ne, Kr, Xe, NF3, HF, dopants, CVD precursors) for metals processing, polysilicon, and semiconductor fabrication. Specialty and electronic-grade gases carry highest margin; bulk industrial gases are lower-margin but high-volume.

Companies we track

Shin-Etsu Chemical
dominant silicon wafer & high-purity silica
4063.T · JP
Lynas Rare Earths
largest ex-China rare-earth miner & refiner
LYC.AX · AU
MP Materials
sole US integrated rare-earth mine-to-magnet
MP · US
Wacker Chemie
top Western semiconductor-grade polysilicon
WCH.DE · DE
Energy Fuels
US heavy rare-earth separation + uranium
UUUU · US

Supply chain

Raw inputs

Mines & energy feedstockGlobal
ore, gas, polysilicon feedstock

Key suppliers

MP MaterialsUS
rare earths ex-China
LynasAU
largest non-China REE separator
Shin-Etsu / WackerJP/DE
polysilicon & silicon
Sibelco (Quartz Corp)BE/NO
near sole high-purity quartz

Buyers

Magnet & motor makersCN/JP
permanent-magnet chain
Semiconductor & battery chainsGlobal
downstream consumers