L3
Power Generation
A large AI training cluster can draw as much power as a small city, and that electricity has to come from somewhere. This layer covers every source that generates it: gas turbines for reliable baseload, nuclear plants for firm low-carbon output, solar and wind for variable supply, and the batteries and fuel cells that smooth the gaps. Securing enough generation capacity has become one of the primary constraints on new data-centre builds, with gas-turbine order slots now booked years into the future.
THE TAKE
The acute 2026 constraint is electricity itself. Gas-turbine slots carry multi-year backlogs and reservation fees from a three-OEM oligopoly, and the SMR pipeline is gated by HALEU enrichment. Power availability now caps how much compute can actually run.
Signals
- GE Vernova's gas-power backlog hit ~100 GW in Q1 2026, with slots reserved into the late 2030s (GE Vernova filings; HSBC).
- Siemens Energy's total backlog hit a record ~€146B by Q1 FY2026, with around a quarter of new gas-turbine orders tied to data-centre demand (Siemens Energy; Deutsche Bank).
- Heavy-duty gas-turbine lead times stretched to 5-7 years; 2026 orders now deliver after 2030 (HSBC).
- Centrus delivered the first ~900 kg of US HALEU in 2025; commercial scale is years out, leaving Russia's TENEX the only supplier (JPMorgan; WNA).
The investment angle
The investable edge sits in the three turbine OEMs and the enabling chain: hot-section forgings, single-crystal blades and HALEU enrichment, where capacity is years from scaling.
Inside this layer, node by node
The atlas data behind this layer: 67 nodes, 7 of them chokepoints. Every node links back into the network map; market figures carry their source.
Gas-fuelled power generation technologies and their OEM, MRO, fuel-supply and balance-of-plant chains, both grid-connected and behind-the-meter. Gas turbine OEMs exercise pricing power through 5-7 year lead times and 20% slot reservation deposits; EPC margins compressed by cost inflation.
Fission plants and their fuel services, from enrichment through waste disposal. Nuclear is the only carbon-free baseload source at gigawatt scale for AI clusters. Fuel oligopolies and reactor design lock-in concentrate value; HALEU access chokes next-generation deployment.
Generates electricity from ground-mounted solar arrays at grid scale. Interconnection queues and land access constrain deployment more than module supply. Value migrates from hardware to interconnection rights, EPC execution, and O&M contracts; IRA domestic content rules reshape sourcing.
Manufactures, installs, and maintains land-based wind turbines through 20-25 year life cycles. Turbine OEMs recovering from 2021-2024 loss-making period through price renegotiation and cost reduction. Blade and drivetrain supply tightening; certified technician shortage inflates labor costs and extends outage durations.
Offshore wind generation using fixed-bottom and floating platforms, covering turbine and foundation manufacture, marine installation, O&M, and array cables. Higher capacity factors than onshore suit coastal data center clusters. Installation vessel scarcity benefits operators and offshore EPC contractors.
Conventional hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal power generation. Provides firm dispatchable baseload from subsurface heat. Fervo Energy holds long-term clean PPAs; Ormat dominates conventional ORC equipment.
Conventional hydropower and pumped storage hydro as dispatchable bulk storage, covering turbines, civil infrastructure, and O&M. PSH owners earn grid services revenue; Andritz and Voith dominate turbine supply.
Grid-scale and plant-scale storage as dispatchable supply: battery systems, long-duration storage, and flywheels. CATL and BYD are scaling battery manufacturing; long-duration storage still needs commercial scale-up.
Fuel cell systems as primary or backup power at data centres and industrial sites, covering solid-oxide and proton-exchange membrane types. Hydrogen production is excluded. Bloom Energy leads US solid-oxide installations; Brookfield's $5 billion partnership shows institutional capital entering.
Power from woody biomass, agricultural residues, biogas and municipal solid waste via combustion, gasification or co-firing. Plant operators capture value through long-term waste gate fees or biomass fuel contracts. Limited technology margin; economics depend on policy support and feedstock access.
Engineering-procurement-construction services, ownership structures and offtake arrangements across generation technologies. Includes behind-the-meter developers for data centers—on-site gas, small modular reactors, renewable microgrids. EPCs earn turnkey fees; developers capture project IRR.
Tradespeople and engineers who build and run power plants: turbine techs, nuclear operators, blade repair crews, high-voltage electricians. Shortages in nuclear, offshore wind, and gas turbine maintenance delay projects and raise wages. Specialist staffing firms and training centres capture scarcity premiums.
Haulers and riggers that move heavy generation equipment: 300-tonne gas turbines, wind blades, reactor pressure vessels, nuclear fuel. Scarce specialised trailers, vessels, and route permits create bottlenecks. A handful of licensed nuclear transport carriers and heavy-lift firms capture restricted-access premiums.
Companies we track
Supply chain
Raw inputs
Key suppliers
Buyers